North Vision Song Contest #15: Semi-final 1

So I decided to try a kind of prediction as well, but in a different and unusual way.
Instead of trying to "guess" the 10 qualifiers and the 5 PQR participants, I'll try to "evaluate" the probability 
of each country to eventually pass the SF.
Remember that this prediction is totally objective, and is based only on facts and impressions, and not on my opinion towards any of the songs.

100%: Sweden
    IMO it's the only country that just can't manage to be eliminated tonight. It has just got too many lovers in this SF, with a few people who were promising the highest points... Sweden has even probably reached the first place of this Semi-Final. I also think it's a big candidate for the Top 3 in the Final.

90%: Kazakhstan, Liechtenstein
    Two songs which have both been really hyped since they were selected. They have no reason to fail this time.

80%: Hungary
    Despite not being in the Top 10 according to the BO, it's the kind of song that always manages to be in, thanks to the artist's popularity, for instance. (Oh and it also flopped in OESC, which is always really helpful ).

75%: Algeria, Moldova, Turkey
    You'll probably think I placed these pretty low... but well, three songs pretty much considered as favourites, loved/liked by nearly everybody, with a big enough fanbase as well... this looks perfect, doesn't it ? But doesn't it remind you anything ? Maybe not 2NIGHT, but what about L'ultimo addio (#11) or Jamais trop tard (#9) ? 
IMO those countries are not totally safe, even though they've got big chances for the reasons I explained above. However, I'd say these songs are all potential Top 10 contenders if they manage to qualify.

60%: Czech Republic, Romania
    Despite being placed pretty high in the BO (especially the first one), these songs have arroused mixed reactions. A surprise might happen if they got a bad draw (= if they don't have enough lovers in SF1).

50%: Belarus, Georgia, Monaco, Serbia
    4 songs that haven't really received any hate, and have got some lovers ar the opposite. They might not qualify because only 10/20 countries can, and people may prefer other songs.

40%: Faroe Islands
    I may be wrong on this, but since this song was revealed, it looked pretty discreet and I don't know if it will be powerful enough to stand out in comparison to the other entries. Anyway it was pretty hard to guess anything about this one.

25%: B&H, Iceland, Luxembourg, Malta, Switzerland
    Once again, these ones don't seem to be very unliked, but they haven't really grabbed people's attention so far. Their qualification is still possible, but it would be a kind of surprise IMO. (but we have surprises every edition ).

5%: Portugal
    I didn't put 0% as anything can always happen, but as someone already said, there's barely anyone who likes it. It's the most likely country to come last ; although it certainly won't get a , like some people think.

I wanted to try this different way of predicting because it's pretty original, and IMO it's easier to get close to the actual results, since it's possible to nuance all the guesses.

Phil do it for semi two

My nuclear missiles are ready aka

Even if I am not in this contest, these are my predictions in random order (not my opinion):

BELARUS
LIECHTENSTEIN
ICELAND or MONACO
ALGERIA
SWEDEN
KAZAKHSTAN
HUNGARY
CZECH REPUBLIC
TURKEY
MOLDOVA