North Vision Song Contest #16: Semi-final 1

Let's go...

PREDICTION
=> trying to estimate how many chances each country has to qualify

99%: Moldova
(if they don't qualify this time, they may receive an award for the toughest luck in the contest)

90%: France, Kazakhstan, Norway
(a.k.a countries that are extremely likely to pass)

75%: Austria, Turkey, Ukraine
(a.k.a. countries that are likely to pass)

60%: Croatia, Poland, Switzerland
(a.k.a countries with high hopes that might get lower than expected)

45%: Czech Republic, Faroe Islands, Morocco
(a.k.a possible "surprises")

40%: Albania
(difficult to predict)

35%: Finland, FYR Macedonia 
(a.k.a countries that have really few chances to be in)

20%: Belarus, Georgia, Luxembourg
(a.k.a countries that will probably enter the PQR in #17)

5%: Malta
(a.k.a biggest candidate for the last place)  

Please note that this has no link with my opinion: the only things I took into account were the Betting Odds, people's reactions and the draws.