Update of the trend by countries (colors: red=situation got worse since my last post; green=getting better; blue=new country on the list)
- Exponential growth (the number of new cases grows everyday by a roughly constant rate): none.
- Accelerating (the number of new cases grows everyday but the growth rate is decreasging) with negative perspective (might become exponential growth): Guinea.
- Accelerating: Brazil, India, Peru, Belarus, Qatar, Ukraine, Egypt, Kuwait, Bahrain, Armenia, Afghanistan, Ghana, Senegal.
- Accelerating with positive perspective (the growth of the number of new cases seems to have stopped but it's still a bit soon for a conclusion): Russia, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Pakistan, UAE, Bangladesh, Colombia, Nigeria, Bolivia.
- Linear (the number of new cases is roughly constant) with negative perspective (more new cases have been seen recently but it's still a bit soon for a conclusion): Bulgaria.
- Linear: USA, UK, Canada, Sweden, Singapore, Chile, Indonesia, Panama, South Africa, Argentina, Algeria, Moldova, Kazakhstan, Hungary, Oman, Iraq, Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Albania.
- Linear with positive perspective (the number of new cases is roughly constant or slowly decreasing for a quite long period or has decreased recently): Spain, Italy, France, Turkey, Iran, Belgium, Netherlands, Portugal, Ireland, Japan, Poland, Romania, Denmark, Philippines, Dominican Republic, Malaysia, Finland, Morocco, Greece, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Bosnia, Lithuania, North Macedonia, Cuba, Slovakia, Djibouti, Tunisia, Latvia, Andorra.
- Decelarating with negative perspective (some recent indicators show that the epidemic could be stable at current level or rise again or the country has recently started its deconfinement while the epidemic was not under control): Germany.
- Decelerating: Israel, Czech Republic, Slovenia, Cyprus,
- Decelerating with positive perspective (the number of daily cases is continuously decreasing and is already at a quite low level): Switzerland, Austria, Norway, Thailand, Croatia, Estonia, Slovenia.
- Extinction (the number of daily cases is very low and stable or decreasing): China, South Korea, Australia, Luxembourg, Iceland, New Zealand.
- Extinct: none.
- Unknown or insufficient data: Ecuador (actualisation of cases is not reliable), Serbia (no data for several days).
I will add some comments for Italy: the epidemic is decreasing in most of Italian regions, especially in the south, were many provinces didn't declare any new case yesterday and most of the others only a handful of new cases. The situation is under control even in the two big cities (Rome and Naples). In the north, the situation is more complex, because there are places where the situation is clearly better (like in the provinces of Lodi or Cremona) but in some other provinces (like Milan or Torino) the epidemic doesn't really slow down - the number of daily cases is roughly constant and only the statistics of yesterday are quite encouraging.