Looking at statistics from 2008-2012
Those on draw #14 have managed to qualify every year.
Draw #5 is one of the possible worst positions, with only 20% of acts qualifying.
San Marino aren't too bad! 2nd draw in the semi finals isn't too bad, as of now chances are at 70%
The other past weaker draws are #11 with 20%
#3 with 30%
#4 with 30%
Semi Final 1 has never seen a song qualify from either #4 or #11
Semi Final 1 draw #17 has a 100% success rate. (But only 3/5 in Semi Final 2)
In semifinal two, no song singing from #5 has ever qualified (although two have in semifinal 1)
In semifinal 1, the last two positions have always qualified
Opening the show only has one qualifier from semifinal one, but four in semifinal two!
Not saying this is accurate, but has been a pattern.