General Eurovision Discussion (2015)

I'm tired of telling like 10 sites that it isn't official -.-

that video almost killed me




And this now

Mord's Predictions #1

I will begin with the songs from the first semi-final, ending with the Big 5 + Austria.

All entries will be classed into one or more of the following categories:
The Favourites: The bookies favourites, most people think that because of their supreme status they are a shoe in for a left-hand scoreboard finish. They are here for a reason though - although there is always the exception to the rule they are all possible winners.
The Dark Horses: The dark horses are either the countries people don't expect to do well, or think will do well but aren't confident in their prediction (maybe based on their past track record, lack of neighbours or minimal budget). There may be one or two that will definitely shock you. (In the Czech Republic's case, I only included them because the jury may do an Italy 2011).
The Fan Favourite Flops: The countries who fans think will do really well, but in reality - will do the exact opposite. Whether they trip over their feet in the semi finals or in the final, we don't know. Just don't expect them to bring home a stellar result.
The Non-Qualifiers: The quite obvious non-qualifiers with entries by countries that either don't care, don't have enough money or don't have enough brains when picking up their phones. They'll be stuck in the semi finals, with their neighbour besties being the only bail out of last place.
The Shock Qualifiers: The qualifiers that will cause some tears. These songs will get the ticket to the final which in reality should have been given to somebody else. Whether it is diaspora, neighours or sympathy votes, they'll get in - at the expense of someone else, who'll be stuck in the semi-finals (that really shouldn't be).
The Shock Qualifier Victim: The countries that are fighting for 10th place, but might have it fall out of their hands thanks to the shock qualifiers. Maybe two songs target the same audience and cancel each other out, they are given an unfortunate position in the running order or are stuck in-between favourites. Not everyone will leave happy.
The Upset: Countries that may surprise everyone by doing incredibly well or incredibly awful.
The Not-So-Big 5: Despite their automatic final position, don't expect them to make much of an impact on the final result.
The Outside Shot: All countries whose entries are different or stand out in a different way, and this may just give them a few points to cheer them up. They could also snatch a left-hand scoreboard placing.
The Outside Qualifier: The countries that people tend to forget about but still have a small chance at qualifying.
The Unexpected Underdog: The songs that may be forgotten or not viewed as a threat, only to appear and snatch away valuable points (and as a result hurt some countries' chances of winning).
The Borderline Qualifier: Just like the Shock Qualifier Victim, all the countries in their respective SF fighting for that last ticket. Both SFs have the potential to do a SF1 in 2011 and split 10th-12th by a matter of only 1-2 points.
The Fall Flat: In 2011 it was the UK. In 2012 it was Azerbaijan. In 2013 it was Belgium and Malta. In 2014 it was Hungary. Who is it in 2015? There are always one or two countries that seem to do really well early in the voting, but fade away into oblivion shortly afterwards.
The Nul Points: The one country that has a legitimate chance at getting no points. 

Ranking of chances: Utmost Certainty, Positive, Good, Fair, Not good, Slim, little-to-none, None

 Moldova: The Non Qualifier
Unless viewers are left depressed from the large number of slow songs in the semi final, Moldova has no chance of qualifying. The song itself is very outdated and is the kind of song you'd expect teenage girls to fawn over - in the early 2000's. From the national selection he hasn't got a killer voice either. The song opens so it will be easily forgotten, not to mention it will be lost in the Balkan, Soviet and Scandinavian voting blocs. If it stands out because it is an uptempo song (and for this reason only), I can see it finishing 12th or 13th at best. If not, I predict a 14th-16th place.

Chances of qualifying: Little-to-none
Chances of winning: None



Armenia: The Shock Qualifier, The Fall Flat
Of all the songs in the first semi final, this would be the biggest shock qualifier after Finland. The song is a hot mess and Genealogy was formed to symbolise something, not necessarily for their matching voices (because they don't match). Armenia's diaspora has shown in the past that it can propel songs higher on the scoreboard than they should be (2013), so this is probably going to be the same case. However considering the last qualifying spots are so hard to predict, they could miss out like Emmy did in 2011.

If it makes it to the final, the diaspora will do its charm, but will not be enough to be a real threat to the left hand side of the scoreboard. I expect the diaspora to propel the nation to the top of the board for the first 6 or 7 countries' votes (UK 2011, Belgium + Malta 2013), and after that will fall lower and lower, failing to gain the momentum it had in the beginning.


Chances of qualifying: Fair
Chances of winning: None


Tomorrow: Belgium and The Netherlands.